With avian influenza spreading from Asia to Africa and Europe, governments are under increasing public pressure to counter the threat of a potentially deadly pandemic. They are already stockpiling antiviral drugs and vaccines, buying options on vaccine production capacity, and even using private-public partnerships to build production plants. Well intentioned though these multibillion-dollar programs may be, however, they are unlikely to help governments protect as many citizens as possible in the most efficient, cost-effective way.

We believe that governments cannot attain this goal if they act alone; only close cooperation with experts from health organizations and the pharmaceutical industry could produce the necessary amount of vaccine for affected areas in the event of a pandemic. The key will be to increase the demand for regular annual flu shots—an effective way of encouraging new vaccine production capacity. Until adequate capacity is built, governments must continue stockpiling vaccines and antiviral drugs to provide at least some stopgap protection.

Thus far, there is no evidence that the avian-flu virus has mutated enough to be easily and sustainably transmitted by humans. As of June 2006 the 226 cases of human infection, which led to 129 deaths, stemmed mainly from contact with infected animals. The...