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What China’s five-year plan means for business

McKinsey analyzed the potential impact on 33 industries. Two dimensions stood out: the plan’s effect on profit pools and on the competitive landscape.

China five-year plan’s meaning for business article, impact on industry profit pools, Public Sector

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China’s recently announced 12th five-year plan aims to transform the world’s second-largest economy from an investment-driven dynamo into a global powerhouse with a steadier and more stable trajectory. The plan affects domestic and foreign companies in all industries. To help senior managers decode and understand its provisions, we analyzed the potential impact on 33 industries. Two dimensions stood out: the effect on their profit pools and competitive landscapes. (For a detailed look at this analysis, see the interactive exhibit, “The economic impact of China’s 12th five-year plan.”)

The plan’s likely impact on profit pools was categorized as either favorable (for example, sensitive to an increase in domestic demand or specifically targeted for special treatment), unfavorable (subject to restrictive policies), or neutral. For the effect on the competitive landscape, we looked at the intensity of regulation.

Five groups emerged from the analysis. New strategic industries are singled out for global leadership. Domestic-consumption engines drive consumer growth in the homeland. Restructurers are under government mandate to change. Reinventors are mature industries that must innovate and reinvest to close the gap with global leaders. Social utilities are large state-owned enterprises managing significant components of the national infrastructure.

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